In 2017, the price of copper rose by more than 30%, which is not favorable for air-conditioning products with large copper usage, but it is a good advantage for various copper-based raw material suppliers. In early February, nine copper listed companies issued performance forecasts, almost all of which were good news. Jiangxi Copper's recent announcement shows that the company's net profit in 2017 is expected to increase by 788 million yuan to 1.024 billion yuan compared with the same period of last year, and the corresponding growth rate has reached 100%-130%. Jiangxi Copper also explicitly mentioned that the price of major metal products rose in 2017, driving its rapid improvement. At the same time, Tongling Nonferrous is expected to achieve a net profit of between 510 million yuan and 580 million yuan in 2017, a year-on-year increase of 183% to 222%. The main reason for the sharp increase in performance is still the rise in copper prices. Tongling Nonferrous Metals also said that the price increase of the main products has boosted the profitability of the main business. Moreover, as copper prices continue to rise, the processing costs of copper are also on the rise. Under the pressure of rising copper prices, air-conditioning products have experienced several price increases in the past year, and the last price increase appeared at the end of 2017. Although the copper price has declined in January, from the supply and demand status of the copper market, in the next two or three years, the supply of copper will be in a state of constant tension, and the related gap is not small, which will be very large. To a certain extent, it stimulated the rise of copper prices again. Now, the average price of air-conditioning products that have gone through multiple price increases has reached a peak in recent years. According to statistics from the Orviet Cloud Network, the average price of air-conditioning at the terminal retail level exceeds 3,800 yuan. The rising cost of copper has made the cost pressure on air-conditioning products very obvious. Later, in the form of price increases, the upstream cost pressure will be released again, and the space faced will only become smaller and smaller. The survival and development environment of the air-conditioning industry will deteriorate due to the rising price of materials represented by copper. After two consecutive years of explosive growth, the domestic air-conditioning market will remain in the first few months of the 2018 freeze year. High growth momentum. However, the growth rate of terminal retail and engineering machine sales is difficult to match the increase in shipments, which has led to a record high in the domestic air-conditioning market. The huge inventory has further intensified the contradiction between supply and demand, and the rising cost of copper prices will make this contradiction evolve in a more dangerous direction. The current air-conditioning domestic market is still growing, and the contradiction between supply and demand has suppressed the room for product price increases. The factory wants to shift the cost pressure through price increase in the 2018 market. Judging from the existing market initiatives of various air-conditioning companies, adjusting product structure, implementing efficiency-driven, and concentrating resources to terminals has become a collective behavior, which in turn has made terminal competition reach a new height in the peak season of 2018. The intensification of the contradiction between supply and demand and the rise of upstream costs have brought the price strategy of the factory into a dilemma. In the overall environment where supply is seriously greater than demand, it is difficult for the terminal level to accept the continuous rise in prices. Under the situation that the price of materials represented by copper continues to rise, the pressure on the business will only become heavier and heavier. The demand trend in the peak season this year will be the winner of all contradictions and pressures, and even the key node for the development of the air-conditioning industry in the next few years. Since the development of the domestic air-conditioning market, there has not been a phenomenon of blowout in three consecutive years. Either, the domestic market has created a new history in the peak season of 2018, maintaining the scale of the entire market at a high level in one fell swoop; or, the air-conditioning industry is once again caught in a cyclical cycle of destocking. However, judging from the predictions and judgments of the post-markets by multiple data monitoring companies or institutions, the trend of the air-conditioning domestic market in 2018 is not optimistic, and the continuous rise of copper prices may make the air-conditioning industry worse.
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Supply tight copper prices will increase air conditioning costs and then pressure
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