iSuppli looks down on fourth-quarter semiconductor shipment forecast

In a report released in September, IHSiSuppli estimated that the global semiconductor market will grow by 2.9% over the previous year. After two months, the annual growth rate will be revised down to 1.2%, which will be negative for the fourth quarter.

iSuppli senior vice president DaleFord pointed out that semiconductors performed strongly in the third quarter, which was 3.5% higher than the second quarter, but it was dismal in the last three months of this year. It is generally expected that revenue in the fourth quarter will fall 2% from the previous quarter.

Ford said: "Although the growth of 1.2% is almost impossible, but in the current market mentality, any growth is meaningful." He believes that the economic environment is deteriorating and the pessimistic atmosphere gradually fermenting in the electronics industry supply chain. , Many people have been hopeless as early as the previous quarter, one after another under the third quarter and the 2011 semiconductor revenue, so further progress for the market performance is a glimmer of dawn.

So where is the problem? In March of this year, semiconductors were hit by the 311 Japan earthquake and tsunami. The damaged factories caused the Japanese supply chain to cover the top; on the other hand, the memory market dragged the overall semiconductor performance in the fourth quarter. DRAM, SRAM, and NORFlash should decline by nearly 15 percent this year from last year. iSuppli believes that the memory market will remain weak next year, and even NANDflash may decline. A handful of Chunyans may fall on microprocessors and image sensors and have the opportunity to grow by 15% this year.

Zeus Kerravala, chief analyst of ZKResearch, agrees with iSuppli's pessimistic view that the recession will make the global semiconductor market less optimistic next year. He said: "The difficult time will come. The mess in Europe and the flat IT demand in the United States will not be a good thing."

Kerravala further pointed out that the semiconductor market has always been the best indicator for testing the temperature of the economic environment. He believes that "European problems need to address the root cause, otherwise it will continue to cause unwarranted interference with the overall economy, which in turn makes the big factories cautious. Consumers will also look closely at wallets. I think there will be a very light start in 2012."